Just 60 days in the past when the Villa attacker was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as his coach admonished him over missing a through-ball. Back then, with the team failed to win in six, the question was if Rogers' form were a sign or the source of Villa's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, though, the manager's outburst proved to be much more joyous. When the England international drilled in his second strike to restore Villa's lead, Emery discarded his coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team continued to a 10th successive win , having failed to win any of their first six games, now sit just three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Hopefuls?
This is a rather hard proposition to address. The historical record, a general sense of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, while the wins have stacked up.
Per Opta, twice all season have Villa registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team who have just won 10 in a row, Villa seem curiously susceptible – yet at the moment the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy looks like to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for their talisman to save the day with some precise efforts. This occurred at Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and once more against United.
The initial strike originated from an exquisite effort, curled precisely inside the upright from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a slight scruffier version of the opener capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opposition managed more shots and more efforts on goal. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent they have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, surely, cannot keep on drilling the football into the net's top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is a different scenario whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho might become the performer he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually return from injury, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this is a surprise. Few believed Aston Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely two months ago, no one envisioned the young forward as the year closed would be at the forefront of a title charge while looking like a vital Three Lions star.
The current run must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. As Rogers stood in front of the North End at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. Such periods are rare in football and must be appreciated.
